Continue reading "Kenley Jansen Is The Model Of A Modern Reliever"
Reymin GuduanHOU001+0.0 Tyler OlsonCLE204+0.3 Darren O’DayBAL1332+0.9 Justin NicolinoMIA002+0.0 Corey KnebelMIL4782+3.9 Frankie MontasOAK110-0.2 Jacob TurnerWAS520-0.0 Chad QuallsCOL210-0.0 Buddy BoshersMIN020-0.7 Felipe RiveroPIT3742+3.9 Craig KimbrelBOS3140+3.5 Kelvin HerreraKC2773+1.6 Jim JohnsonATL1993-0.6 Danny BarnesTOR893-2.1 Marc RzepczynskiSEA11412+0.2 Albert SuarezSF430-0.6 Cam BedrosianLAA1354+0.1 Miguel DiazSD010-0.4 Caleb SmithNYY110-0.2 Evan ScribnerSEA020-0.7 Wade DavisCHC3031+3.2 Nate JonesCHW410+0.2 Brett CecilSTL1543+0.7 Robby ScottBOS5212+0.1 Tyler PillNYM010-0.4 Ryan GartonSEA/TB031-1.1 Jesse ChavezLAA121-0.6 Trevor HildenbergerMIN933+0.3 Mike MinorKC2874+1.8 Johnny BarbatoPIT010-0.4 Peter MoylanKC1005+1.6 Kenyan MiddletonLAA1021+0.8 Arodys VizcainoATL2882+1.1 Brad PeacockHOU101+0.1 Hunter StricklandSF2661+1.5 Brooks PoundersLAA100+0.2 Erik GoeddelNYM121-0.6 Ricardo PintoPHI121-0.6 Joaquin BenoitPHI/PIT18110-1.5 Luis SantosTOR210-0.1 Doug Corbett198068103+6.3 Tony WatsonLAD/PIT2396-0.0 Kyle McGrathSD100+0.1 Koda GloverWAS822+0.4 Vance WorleyMIA010-0.4 Francisco LirianoHOU221-0.4 Josh RavinLAD110-0.2 Jumbo DiazTB653-0.9 Eric O’FlahertyATL211-0.1 Chris BeckCHW022-0.7 Aroldis ChapmanNYY1943+1.5 Andrew ChafinARI587-2.2 Mychal GivensBAL1834+1.7 Jose AlvaradoTB943-0.1 Warwick SaupoldDET113-0.2 Xavier CedenoTB013-0.4 Daniel HudsonPIT864-1.1 Juan NicasioPHI/PIT2288+0.2 Troy Percival19964731+6.5 Tony ZychSEA853-0.6 J. P. HowellTOR010-0.4 Jose AlvarezLAA555-1.1 Joe SmithCLE/TOR1921+2.2 Brandon MaurerKC/SD19100-1.0 Nick GoodyCLE012-0.4 Luis AvilanLAD644-0.7 Josh FieldsLAD652-1.0 Nick WittgrenMIA611+0.5 Drew StorenCIN423-0.2 Keone KelaTEX1032+0.5 Matt BarnesBOS1884-0.0 Ryan TeperaTOR2531+2.8 Justin GrimmCHC412+0.2 Drew VerHagenDET312+0.1 Matt BushTEX1763+0.5 Tommy KahnleCHW/NYY1692-0.9 Nick VincentSEA2856+2.4 PITCHERYEARGOOSE EGGSBROKEN EGGSMEHSGWAR Will HarrisHOU1830+1.5 Matt AlbersWAS1524+1.4 Ty BlachSF201+0.3 Mike PelfreyCHW001+0.0 Joe MusgroveHOU800+1.2 Hector RondonCHC1132+0.4 Tyler LyonsSTL1132+0.5 Koji UeharaCHC1563-0.1 Stu Miller19657973+7.5 Robbie RossBOS100+0.2 Oliver DrakeMIL441-0.9 Bryan MorrisSF300+0.4 Tommy HunterTB3061+2.3 Anthony SwarzakCHW/MIL2444+2.1 Kenley Jansen’s season was Goose-toricHighest single-season goose wins above replacement (GWAR) Francis MartesHOU412+0.2 James PazosSEA1345+0.5 Ariel HernandezCIN001+0.0 A.J. MinterATL110-0.2 Bryan MitchellNYY010-0.4 Santiago CasillaOAK1783-0.4 Alex ColomeTB3866+3.5 Brad BoxbergerTB443-0.9 Jake DiekmanTEX601+0.9 Tyler DuffeyMIN1143+0.2 Josh OsichSF426-0.2 Michael LorenzenCIN2672+1.2 Liam HendriksOAK1261-0.4 Kenley Jansen20174401+6.3 Lucas HarrellTOR001+0.0 Brad ZieglerMIA1233+0.6 Andrew RomineDET001+0.0 Brian EllingtonMIA530-0.4 Deolis GuerraLAA720+0.3 Raisel IglesiasCIN3122+3.8 Mike MorinLAA101+0.2 Hector NerisPHI3174+1.9 Jake JunisKC200+0.3 Corey Knebel gets the golden eggFinal goose egg stats for 2017 John AxfordOAK120-0.6 Ron Perranoski196979139+6.6 Archie BradleyARI3148+3.2 Pedro BaezLAD1478-0.6 Edwin DiazSEA4074+3.4 Sammy SolisWAS422-0.2 Steven OkertSF7412-0.5 Felix PenaCHC100+0.1 Ross StriplingLAD1091-2.0 Jerry BlevinsNYM18513+0.7 Hector VelazquezBOS500+0.8 Tony CingraniCIN/LAD724+0.3 Joe BiaginiTOR932+0.3 Cody AllenCLE2985+1.8 Dominic LeoneTOR946-0.1 Jen-Ho TsengCHC300+0.4 Richard BleierBAL422-0.1 Addison ReedBOS/NYM3567+3.0 Sources: Retrosheet, The Baseball GAUGE Wade LeBlancPIT232-0.8 Bryan ShawCLE2985+1.8 Jake BarrettARI203+0.3 Jeurys FamiliaNYM822+0.4 Fernando AbadBOS511+0.4 Zach PutnamCHW200+0.3 Joe KellyBOS1245+0.5 Joe BlantonWAS430-0.5 Fernando SalasLAA/NYM864-1.1 Ernesto FrieriTEX010-0.4 Jason GrilliTEX/TOR443-0.8 Ricardo RodriguezTEX221-0.4 Wily PeraltaMIL120-0.6 Shae SimmonsSEA020-0.7 Jamie CallahanNYM201+0.3 Blake ParkerLAA2352+1.6 Diego MorenoTB010-0.4 Jose LeclercTEX733+0.0 Carlos RamirezTOR700+1.1 Phil MatonSD732-0.1 Edubray RamosPHI9111-2.8 Mike DunnCOL1503+2.4 David PhelpsMIA/SEA1694-1.1 Austin MaddoxBOS200+0.3 Oliver PerezWAS615+0.5 Alex WoodLAD301+0.4 Chasen ShreveNYY623+0.2 Jose RamirezATL2066+0.7 Tom WilhelmsenARI112-0.2 Dillon GeeMIN100+0.2 Daniel StumpfDET245-1.2 Ryan DullOAK634-0.2 Sergio RomoLAD/TB630-0.2 Tyler AndersonCOL100+0.2 Chase WhitleyTB641-0.6 Chris RowleyTOR310+0.1 Bud NorrisLAA1871+0.1 Matthew BowmanSTL1977+0.1 Greg HollandCOL2762+2.1 Francisco RodriguezDET382-2.5 Willie Hernandez19846577+6.4 Jackson StephensCIN100+0.1 Joely RodriguezPHI524-0.0 Brad HandSD3866+3.2 Ronald HerreraNYY010-0.4 Alex ClaudioTEX2648+2.6 Adam MorganPHI910+0.9 Gabriel YnoaBAL001+0.0 Kenley JansenLAD4401+6.3 Rubby De La RosaARI011-0.4 David RobertsonCHW/NYY2862+2.1 T. J. McFarlandARI622+0.2 Jose TorresSD552-1.2 Ryan BuchterKC/SD1564-0.1 Eduardo ParedesLAA210-0.1 Jason MotteATL212-0.1 Seung-hwan OhSTL2256+1.3 Brandon KintzlerMIN/WAS3464+2.9 Luke JacksonATL100+0.1 Dustin McGowanMIA412+0.2 Jorge De La RosaARI1251-0.0 PITCHER▲▼TEAM▲▼GOOSE EGGS▲▼BROKEN EGGS▲▼MEHS▲▼GWAR▲▼ Rich Gossage197582118+6.7 Zach DukeSTL112-0.2 Jacob BarnesMIL2694+0.5 Danny FarquharCHW/TB1442+0.6 Rex BrothersATL331-0.7 Doug FisterBOS420-0.1 George KontosPIT/SF1283-1.3 Blake WoodCIN432-0.5 Pat NeshekCOL/PHI2848+2.8 Andrew MillerCLE3353+3.5 Carson SmithBOS200+0.3 Dovydas NeverauskasPIT530-0.4 Enny RomeroWAS1446+0.5 Sam TuivailalaSTL441-0.9 Jeanmar GomezPHI721+0.3 Daniel CoulombeOAK456-1.3 Matt BelisleMIN2263+1.1 Matt DermodyTOR302+0.5 Jimmy YacabonisBAL300+0.5 Jacob RhameNYM210-0.1 Rob ScahillMIL110-0.2 Chris DevenskiHOU26106+0.1 Kirby YatesLAA/SD1462-0.2 Michael FelizHOU110-0.2 Ben TaylorBOS101+0.2 Scott ObergCOL725+0.4 Tom KoehlerTOR312+0.1 Dario AlvarezTEX201+0.3 Robert GsellmanNYM210-0.1 Buddy BaumannSD311+0.1 Matt GraceWAS212-0.1 Brad BrachBAL3182+1.9 Sam DysonSF/TEX27112-0.1 Jhan MarinezMIL/PIT320-0.3 Chris YoungKC100+0.2 Travis WoodKC331-0.6 J. C. RamirezLAA020-0.7 Chris O’GradyMIA101+0.1 Brandon MorrowLAD1242+0.2 Dan OteroCLE200+0.3 Steve CishekSEA/TB1024+0.8 Kyle RyanDET210-0.1 Roberto OsunaTOR31101+1.1 Scott AlexanderKC844-0.2 Juan MinayaCHW1013+1.1 Trevor CahillKC200+0.3 Chad BellDET001+0.0 Bruce RondonDET430-0.5 Chris RusinCOL1344+0.6 Dan WinklerATL111-0.2 Wandy PeraltaCIN1544+0.7 PITCHER▲▼TEAM▲▼GOOSE EGGS▲▼BROKEN EGGS▲▼MEHS▲▼GWAR▲▼ Yovani GallardoSEA100+0.2 Tyler ClippardCHW/HOU10117-2.5 Jordan LylesCOL210-0.0 Domingo GermanNYY020-0.7 Javy GuerraMIA112-0.2 Andrew KittredgeTB210-0.1 Jarlin GarciaMIA517+0.3 Josh SmithOAK210-0.1 Brent SuterMIL001+0.0 Miguel SocolovichSTL101+0.1 Jandel GustaveHOU010-0.4 Blaine BoyerBOS611+0.6 Logan VerrettBAL400+0.6 Sam FreemanATL1226+1.0 Mariano Rivera19965462+6.6 Victor AranoPHI210-0.1 Austin PruittTB420-0.1 Shane GreeneDET2045+1.6 Zach BrittonBAL1820+2.1 Tony BarnetteTEX731+0.0 Neil RamirezNYM012-0.4 Austin BriceCIN400+0.6 Jean MachiSEA101+0.2 Kevin QuackenbushSD120-0.6 Odrisamer DespaigneMIA100+0.1 Kevin SiegristPHI/STL813+0.8 John BrebbiaSTL313+0.1 Justin WilsonCHC/DET2463+1.4 Jared HughesMIL1042-0.0 Stefan ChrichtonBAL010-0.4 Al AlburquerqueCHW/KC121-0.6 Junichi TazawaMIA1470-0.6 Craig StammenSD1023+0.7 Neftali FelizKC/MIL1060-0.7 Paul SewaldNYM1283-1.3 Kyle CrickSF100+0.1 Parker BridwellLAA001+0.0 Blake TreinenOAK/WAS22103-0.4 Hansel RoblesNYM952-0.6 Yusmeiro PetitLAA2342+2.0 Luis GarciaPHI1664+0.1 Trevor RosenthalSTL2581+0.6 Ian KrolATL623+0.1 Donnie HartBAL423-0.1 Derek LawSF1131+0.5 Matt CainSF100+0.1 Ted Abernathy196751314+6.2 Zach McAllisterCLE121-0.6 Gabriel MoyaMIN100+0.2 Josh EdginNYM525-0.0 Dillon MaplesCHC100+0.1 Carl EdwardsCHC2283+0.1 Aaron BummerCHW456-1.2 Tyler ChatwoodCOL110-0.2 Heath HembreeBOS1056-0.2 Simon CastroOAK221-0.4 Tyler WilsonBAL111-0.2 Shawn KelleyWAS621+0.1 Sam MollOAK011-0.4 Chad GreenNYY322-0.3 Ryan PresslyMIN532-0.3 James HoytHOU110-0.2 Emilio PaganSEA342-1.0 Tony SippHOU111-0.2 Ryan SherriffSTL221-0.5 Pedro StropCHC1935+1.6 Drew SteckenriderMIA1111+1.2 Brian DuensingCHC631-0.3 Sparky Lyle197766813+6.1 Dan AltavillaSEA431-0.5 Grant DaytonLAD112-0.2 Sean DoolittleOAK/WAS2437+2.4 Jake PetrickaCHW223-0.4 Josh SmokerNYM823+0.4 Brock StewartLAD201+0.3 Miguel CastroBAL912+1.0 Tim MayzaTOR001+0.0 Mike BolsingerTOR310+0.1 Blaine HardyDET131-1.0 Alec AsherBAL311+0.1 Brandon WorkmanBOS722+0.4 Jonathan BroxtonSTL120-0.6 Randall DelgadoARI500+0.8 David PriceBOS101+0.2 Taylor RogersMIN1876+0.2 Christian BergmanSEA010-0.4 Ryne StanekTB013-0.4 Dan JenningsCHW/TB259-1.5 Carlos TorresMIL643-0.6 Dan RunzlerPIT001+0.0 Aaron LoupTOR5312-0.3 Craig BreslowCLE/MIN012-0.4 AJ RamosMIA/NYM2244+1.6 Austin Bibens-DirkxTEX001+0.0 David HernandezARI/LAA1515+1.9 Brad GoldbergCHW001+0.0 Ryan MadsonOAK/WAS2441+2.1 After a year of searching, we didn’t our find our new Goose Gossage. But we did get a glimpse of what one might look like in baseball’s just-concluded postseason.This spring, we introduced a new pitching statistic called the goose egg — named in honor of Gossage, the Hall-of-Fame reliever, who had a record 82 goose eggs in 1975. Essentially, a pitcher gets a goose egg for every clutch, scoreless relief inning (see the original article for a more formal definition). Goose eggs have a substantially better correlation with relievers’ win probability added than saves do, especially if paired with their companion statistic, the broken egg.This year’s major leader in goose eggs was the Milwaukee Brewers’ Corey Knebel, who finished with 47 of them. The American League leader was the Seattle Mariners’ Edwin Diaz, who had 40. You can find a complete rundown of this year’s final goose stats in the table below. (A “broken egg” is essentially the blown save of goose stats, and a “meh” is any situation which doesn’t result in either a goose egg or a broken egg.) Carlos EstevezCOL300+0.5 Luke GregersonHOU1062-0.8 Troy ScribnerLAA001+0.0 Asher WojciechowskiCIN200+0.3 Chasen BradfordNYM301+0.4 Antonio BastardoPIT010-0.4 Vidal NunoBAL010-0.4 A. J. ColeWAS100+0.1 Justin HaleyMIN110-0.2 However, from an efficiency standpoint, the best season came not from Knebel or Diaz but from the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Kenley Jansen, who finished with a perfect record of 44 goose eggs and no broken eggs. That’s the most-ever goose eggs without a broken egg. The Dodgers used Jansen smartly and lined up his 68.1 innings pitched to coincide with mostly high-leverage situations. He made 15 multi-inning appearances, entered with runners on base 12 times, and often pitched in tied games — all things that closers weren’t doing much of a few years ago. And Jansen generated 6.3 goose wins above replacement (GWAR) in the regular season, the 7th-highest total of all-time. Amir GarrettCIN110-0.2 Rafael MonteroNYM131-1.0 Erasmo RamirezTB712+0.7 Adam OttavinoCOL1373-0.5 Hector SantiagoMIN010-0.4 Robert StephensonCIN220-0.5 Chase De JongSEA010-0.4 Akeel MorrisATL001+0.0 Cory GearrinSF1232+0.6 Casey FienPHI/SEA320-0.3 Kevin McCarthyKC100+0.2 Mark MelanconSF1550+0.3 Kyle BarracloughMIA2261+0.9 Mike ClevingerCLE010-0.4 Jeff BeliveauTOR111-0.2 Tyler GlasnowPIT010-0.4 Chris HatcherLAD/OAK963-0.9 Matt StrahmKC231-0.8 Adam KolarekTB021-0.7 Jayson AquinoBAL010-0.4 Adam ConleyMIA010-0.4 J. J. HooverARI633-0.2 Fernando RodneyARI3345+3.5 Joakim SoriaKC2982+1.6 Casey LawrenceSEA/TOR020-0.7 Mike MontgomeryCHC1422+1.3 Ken GilesHOU2453+1.7 Kevin ShackelfordCIN120-0.6 Mark LeiterPHI010-0.4 Tanner ScheppersTEX101+0.2 Jimmie SherfyARI100+0.2 Tim AdlemanCIN021-0.7 Alan BusenitzMIN302+0.5 Adam WarrenNYY1041+0.1 SOURCE: SEAMHEADS.COM A. J. SchugelPIT201+0.3 Jeremy JeffressMIL/TEX251-1.5 Giovanny GallegosNYY010-0.4 Boone LoganCLE104+0.2 Joe JimenezDET020-0.7 Josh HaderMIL1245+0.3 Ben HellerNYY101+0.2 Alex WilsonDET1377-0.6 Jonathan HolderNYY611+0.6 Dellin BetancesNYY2482+0.9 Josh CollmenterATL020-0.7 Greg InfanteCHW327-0.3 Hoby MilnerPHI115-0.2 Jake McGeeCOL1552+0.6 Jansen’s also the exception that proves the rule, however; it’s hard to provide all that much value when you pitch only 70 innings or so, which is about how much the best relievers pitch nowadays. After Jansen, the next most-valuable season came from Knebel, who finished with 3.9 GWAR — which ranks just 200th among relief pitching seasons all-time.If you want a model for a more Gossage-like usage pattern, you need to look no further than … how Jansen was used in the postseason. Jansen appeared in 13 of the Dodgers’ 15 playoff games and threw 16.2 innings. Extrapolated out to a full, 162-game regular season, that would work out to a Mike Marshall-like total of 180 relief innings.Jansen didn’t keep his perfect streak alive in the playoffs. Instead, he allowed 2 broken eggs to go with 6 goose eggs. He was also used in some situations that we wouldn’t recommend — for instance, to close out an 11-1 lead against the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS. Still, his postseason goose egg pace would extrapolate to 65 goose eggs over a 162-game regular season.What I’m really advocating for is a hybrid between how pitchers like Jansen are currently used in the regular season and the entirely different way that they’re used in the postseason. The extra off-days the playoffs provide help to enable more creative usage patterns that might not be viable in the regular season. And even with those extra rest days, Jansen may have been overused in not-very-clutch situations in the NLCS and NLDS; perhaps as a result, he was not especially sharp in the World Series. At the same time, he went from throwing 4.7 percent of the Dodgers’ regular season innings to 12.3 percent of their postseason innings — almost a threefold increase. Surely there’s a happy median somewhere in between?But congratulations to Jansen and Knebel, and we’ll resume our hunt for goose eggs next year. In the meantime, you can download detailed data on goose eggs and broken eggs for all pitchers since 1930 here.